How long will the next AI winter last? Any predictions?

I think this one may even be longer than the last one because this cycle was entirely due to the existence of GPUs and NVIDIA. There hasn't been a single fundamental innovation. Neural networks are ancient and are unlikely to be the holy grail of intelligence after multiple decades of failed attempts. It's like running an old game on an overclocked modern desktop and claiming you invented a new game. Since we are at the absolute peak of hype now (maybe a little past the peak already), this should be the start of the bear market for AGI. The real question is if Lisp will make a comeback in the aftermath.

I make here (https://eduardocapaverde.wordpress.com/2019/10/21/ninguem-quer-falar-de-estrategia/ ) an appeal to nature: Knowledge in nature is always the encoding of an use, and as the uses compete for use and one gets less used, it goes away. The same pattern that makes organs in animals devolve causes human forgetfulness. It is a 'compact' solution, not an extensive one.

(Knowledge is never a goal in itself (in nature), but merely persists through its utility (to survival, for instance))

But let's not imitate nature completely; what does this tell us about our interests - encoding it for machine use? I would not like a complete automaton, black box that learns by itself; rather, I would like the programmatization of science for the clarification of its human concepts, as once it has been mathematized for the clarification of physics.

Is there knowledge without a subject? If not, we need to construct the subject, or at least imagine it. Since knowledge is not without interest, what are the interests of the subject? Does it at least have a body to protect? A history to honor? A small-minded goal?