Most people who are getting dubs these days have systems and processes in place to help ensure they come up with the necessary digits. While you can still occasionally turn up dubs with luck, it is becoming harder and harder.
If you want dubs in this day and age, I suggest avoiding waiting around relying on probability and instead implementing an active system-based process such as only trying for dubs directly AFTER someone has almost got dubs.
An example of this is if you see the LAST post in a thread is numbered "43" posting immediately in that thread helps you ensure dubs. The key with this is to post in the same thread as the 'almost-dubs' were posted, and to ensure that is the last post in the thread.
However, if you see the last post in a thread number something similar to "438" AVOID that thread. While it appears as though there will be dubs coming up soon (43), this technique ONLY works if the LAST TWO digits of a post number are almost dubs. If there are three or more numbers in the post number, you cannot rely on anything other than the last two digits (in their original sequence) to indicate the likelihood of attaining dubs.
you cannot rely on anything other than the last two digits (in their original sequence)
To clarify, you can ONLY improve the likelihood of dubs if the original sequence of the almost-dubs is just prior to that. 43 works, and perhaps 42, but 44+ will NOT work.
Here's a real-world scenario, utilizing this method to attain dubs: 1. visit /lounge/ 2. see a thread with 143 replies 3. immediately post in that thread 4. attain dubs in the form of 144
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Anonymous2015-05-25 10:02
>>5 Now, there is of course an element of risk using this method as-is. What if somebody posts just as you are preparing to post, snatching your dubs from under you? Then you're out time, bandwidth and self-esteem when your dubs fail.
To combat this, you can analyze the average time between posts on /lounge/ during any given time period over the last three months (to ensure only current data). Using this data, you can actually increase your dub successes 3-fold, allowing you to grab up dubs even when you don't see any obvious candidates. Here's what I mean:
1. attain a list of every thread over the last three months and sort by subject and tone 2. investigate frequency, time, consistency, etc. of posts in each thread subject/tone 3. sort all current threads into the above groupings 4. you can now make a data-driven decision about whether to try for dubs at (for example) post number 43, 42, or even 41 under some circumstances
Hope this helps :)
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RedCream2015-05-25 14:29
(For the duration of this discussion I will drop my RedCream mannerisms.)
Out of a three-digit space, including the outlier four-digit 1000, what is the probability of attaining dubs without regard to looking behind?
There are three sorts of dubs in that space: Simple, Zeroes, and Embedded. People commonly accept grouping the simple and zero dubs together.
Simple dubs appear in every 11 postings, including the zeroes (one for each 100ths): {11, 22, 33, ..., 100, 111, 122, ..., 977, 988, 999, 1000}
That probability is 1/11 + 1/100 =~ 0.1009
Embedded dubs are like so: {110, 111, 112, ..., 220, 221, 223, ..., 997, 998, 999, 1000}
Excluding the 1000 (which was already accounted for as a "Zero" dubs) that probability is 10x(1/110) =~ 0.0909
There are no other dubs to be found in the three-digit space, hence adding the simple dubs to the embedded dubs is:
1/11 + 1/100 + 10x(1/110) =~ 0.1918
So to attain dubs randomly, you have an overall ~19.2% chance of success, or about 5 postings in every 26 attempts.
When you do not have access to an expanded character set, oar are strapped foar time, you make do with putting ASCII letters together to represent the singular symboal, like using =/= instead of ≠.
This is an easily-admitted roal in these affairs. Is that all you have to say about the matter? Does my math check out? Are you mathematically apt? Do you goa boaling with some frequency of appearance? Oar what?
why do ascii chars look ok but extra unicode ones always look bad and out of place?
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RedCream2015-05-26 0:36
(Once again, I'm dropping my RedCream persona to discuss the math.)
Threads on this message board rarely reach three figures these days. Frequency distribution of just the latest 40 threads reveals 5% are 100 posts or more, and 95% are 99 posts or less. In fact, 80% are 23 posts or less, with 15% being between 24 and 47 posts. 40% outright are single-digits.
Over the short term, this revised probability is much less fruitful.
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Anonymous2015-05-26 0:53
Dubs aren't random. If you can calculate the number of posts per minute a board is having, and then every now and then check to see the latest post number, you can figure out how long you should wait before posting again to get dubs. For example, let's say you see that the last post ends in 43, but the board is pretty busy and gets 1 post every 2 seconds. You shouldn't bother trying to get 44, because odds are that someone else has that post lined up already (though they might be unaware that it ends in 44). Instead, wait until you see that the last post made is somewhere in between two dubs (such as 17, which is sort of in between 11 and 22), and then wait a while based on how many posts are made per second/minute/whatever and how long it takes you to upload a post. It might also be worth scraping boards to see the number of posts per hour to get an idea of what times are the busiest and what times are the slowest. You can also then figure out if there are any discernible patterns, which I'm sure there will be, because of time zones and people waking up and going to sleep and all that jazz. I have acquired many famous GETs. I know what I'm talking about.
>>15 Ignore >>17. Please keep doing it, it arouses me in a weird way. Like when you realize that kuudere girl from a heartwarming anime is good in bed and always tries new stuff.
I will repeat it when it becomes necessary to repeat it. I am the master of my fate except foar all the other masters of my fate, wait, wait, let me start oaver: Fuck off.
Dropping his persona to make those posts was such a childish, cheating ass-move by Red'. What's the point in even crafting a persona over years if you're just going to drop it on a hat? I was actually in favor of Red' until I saw this thread. Absolutely despicable and cowardly.
>>7,8 That might be true in a perfect world. But factor in the number of people who are using all sorts of sneaky blackhat tactics to attain multiple dubs constantly, and here on Earth I think you're chances of attaining dubs by luck is far slimmer than the math implies.
Remember, just because the math allows for something, doesn't mean this thing occurs. I can tell you are ivory tower by your refusal to use contractions, so I doubt you'll like to hear that but it is true. Your precious "multi-verses" and "vibrating string" would sound like the fraudulent nonsense (non-science) they are if not for people's worshiping of math.
I mean, the idea that "the language of the universe" is math is ridiculous considering how it fails to make correct predictions when applied to real world scenarios 50% of the time. It has its uses, but if even human creativity can defeat it, why would math hold the secrets to the universe (or multi-verse) let alone dubs.
>>25 That's not a 66contraction99 -- it's a pseudonym. A Contraction is what your mother was having the other month when she had you. Back to pre-school, please.
What's the point in even crafting a persona over years if you're just going to drop it on a hat?
A persoana is a tool. A tool is not applicable to all jobs.
Admit this roal. A real roal. This is the real. We are of the real. Experience the zeal of the real. It will make you squeal.
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Anonymous2015-05-26 14:13
I'm really grateful for this thread. Many of the methods being posted here are completely new to me. Honestly, when doing manual dub posting (I used to use automated methods) I was simply relying on luck to get dubs. This is literally a game-changer for me, I just hope the methods don't get saturated and cracked down on by the admin.
The thing it's getting harder and harder to obtain dubs using auto-pilot methods these days. For me it has been impossible for nearing a year, due to security measures initiated by most textboards. I entered the dubs game early, back when the dream of "passive dub attainment" was a reality because not many people were trying for them and most textboards weren't actively trying to stamp out bots and automated posting.
My old methods were pretty much setting up an iMacros to post one phrase in every thread as many times as possible, going for massive volume of dubs over quality. Unfortunately, I got lazy and thought my methods would last forever. Back then, I'd set up my proxies and iMacros in about 20 min and get dubs all day hands free. It was perfect, dubs on tap with no effort.
Of course, once that all collapsed I was fucked. I've still got a few sources of auto-pilot dubs on some lesser known textboards (not revealing them here) but mostly it looks like I have to adapt to the reality of manual dubs going forward. At least this thread will help.
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RedCream2015-05-26 14:19
Are... are you an actual dubs harvester, >>29-kun?
I have never met the like. Admit yoar roal.
ROUND AMBER INTENT
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Anonymous2015-05-26 14:53
>>27 You're right, it's actually called initial clipping, but I would have assumed that progrider was an informal enough place for me to use a more common and easily understood word in its stead.
I laughed at the pseudonym remark. Great job, >>27-person.
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Anonymous2015-05-26 21:25
CLIP MY ANUS
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Anonymous2015-05-26 22:47
Check em
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Anonymous2015-05-28 3:59
>>18 It's like the loli that starts speaking in deep male voice